Today's forex markets exhibited a cautious tone as traders digested mixed economic data from Asia, awaited key U.S. inflation figures, and monitored geopolitical developments. A combination of trade tensions, central bank communications, and corporate news drove volatility across major and emerging currencies. Below are the highlights from July 15, 2025.

1. Asia-Pacific FX Wrap

  • Japanese Yen Holds Steady

    The Japanese yen traded largely unchanged against the dollar, hovering around ¥147.75, as markets awaited further clarity on U.S.-Japan trade discussions. Traders attributed the yen's stability to balanced safe‑haven flows and lack of fresh catalysts overnight.

  • Chinese Data in Focus

    Investors prepared for the release of China's Q2 GDP figures and June activity data later today, with expectations of modest growth amid ongoing property sector headwinds. Consensus forecasts see GDP expanding by 5.0% year‑on‑year, which could influence offshore yuan sentiment upon release.

  • Australian Dollar Softens

    The AUD slipped against its U.S. counterpart, trading near $0.6640, as caution gripped markets ahead of the People's Bank of China's policy meeting and a raft of domestic data. Soft commodity prices and lingering trade uncertainty weighed on risk-linked currencies.

2. Major Currency Pairs

Pair Spot Rate Change (24h) Key Drivers
EUR/USD 1.1672 +0.02% Euro under pressure amid weaker Eurozone PMI
USD/JPY 147.75 +0.01% Sideways trade as G7 summit looms
GBP/USD 1.2775 –0.15% Sterling drifts lower on rate-cut concerns
USD/CAD 1.3560 –0.10% CAD supported by better‑than‑expected jobs data

  • Euro: The single currency remained near $1.1670, pressured by softer-than-expected Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings and concerns over potential U.S. tariff threats.

  • British Pound: Sterling extended its decline after Bank of England Governor remarks hinted at looming rate cuts to support a slowing economy, prompting caution ahead of Thursday's policy decision.

  • Canadian Dollar: The CAD traded sideways around C$1.3560 per dollar despite a surprise beat in June employment figures, as oil prices dipped on concerns about global demand.

3. Central Bank & Economic Calendar

  • U.S. Federal Reserve: All eyes are on today's U.S. core inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with expectations for a modest uptick in the core PCE price index. A higher‑than‑forecast reading could reinforce the Fed's current policy stance.

  • Bank of Japan: Minutes from the July 3 meeting revealed a cautious tone, with policymakers debating modest adjustments to forward guidance but ultimately maintaining stimulus measures. Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak tomorrow, which could spark fresh yen volatility.

  • People's Bank of China: Markets await any surprises from the PBoC's quarterly policy meeting, including potential adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio or lending rates to support the slowing property sector.

4. Corporate & Geopolitical News

  • Nojima to Sell FX Margin Unit

    Tokyo-based Nojima Corp. announced it will divest its subsidiary Money Square Holdings Inc., which offers forex margin trading services, to SBI Liquidity Market Co. and Japan Airlines on August 12. The deal underscores strategic shifts in Japan's retail FX landscape.

  • Hedge Funds & Crypto

    Although primarily equity‑focused, reports indicate hedge funds have built record short positions in ether, highlighting broader risk‑off sentiment that has spilled into traditional currency markets. This dynamic accentuates the interplay between cryptocurrencies and forex flows.

5. Technical Highlights

  • Support & Resistance Levels

    • EUR/USD: Strong support at 1.1640; resistance near 1.1700

    • USD/JPY: Support at 147.50; resistance around 148.20

    • GBP/USD: Support at 1.2740; resistance at 1.2830

  • Market Sentiment

    • Implied volatility remains elevated ahead of U.S. data.

    • Option expiries today could amplify moves near psychological thresholds.

6. What's Next?

Traders will monitor:

  1. China Q2 GDP & June data (expected early Asian session)

  2. U.S. core PCE price index (8:30 a.m. ET)

  3. Fed Minutes remarks later in the day.

Volatility may persist as markets balance growth concerns with policy outlooks, and any surprises could trigger sharp reversals in major pairs.

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